Putin faces an “all-or-nothing” situation

The commentary presents Vladimir Putin as facing an “all-or-nothing” situation before winter, with three developments raising concern about what Russia might do next.

It says Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and distribution depots have emptied some shop shelves and left petrol stations without fuel. Russia must then buy refined oil at high prices after selling crude cheaply to evade Western sanctions, while keeping arms factories operating at the expense of other industries and the wider economy.

The piece also links economic pressure to growing repression. It says the crackdown, once focused on declared opponents, now reaches members of the liberal Yabloko party and regional officials and activists from the Communist Party, despite that party’s subordination to the Kremlin. In this framing, Putin needs quick successes to prevent further damage to his credibility.

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without even more massive bombardments, there will be no Russian victory

The most alarming possibility, according to the commentary, is a much broader Russian bombing campaign against Ukraine. A deputy speaker of the Duma proposed warning that Ukrainian cities would be crushed under a continuous wave of bombs, forcing residents to flee and creating chaos. The article says the idea appears increasingly plausible as residential areas come under more systematic attack and Russian authorities signal plans to deprive Ukrainians of heating and electricity.

It says Russia could try to drive Ukrainian civilians onto the roads, open a second front in the north and challenge the West through incursions into a Baltic country or Moldova. Western intelligence services reportedly see such a scenario taking shape. The commentary adds that Ukraine would struggle to fight on two fronts, while Donald Trump might avoid confrontation with Russia because of other political and foreign-policy pressures.

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opened Pandora’s box