Putin has 2.5 years to act before US elections shift landscape, professor says

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a critical two-and-a-half-year window to make strategic decisions regarding the conflict in Ukraine, according to a professor who analyzes potential U.S. political shifts. The upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November could significantly alter the composition of the Senate and House of Representatives, potentially increasing pressure on Putin.

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At the moment, Putin still has, let's say, a two-and-a-half-year period during which he can take action. I think a change of power in Congress, the Senate, or both of these bodies could become a decisive moment when Putin realizes that his window of opportunity is closing, and therefore he will have to take action. Then he might start creating the narrative of Russian propaganda, claiming that many of the goals of his special military operation have already been achieved, so it's time to start negotiations.

Professor R. Sheremeta suggests that a change in U.S. congressional power could signal to Putin that his "window of opportunity is closing." This might prompt him to declare that his "special military operation" objectives have been met and initiate peace talks. The professor believes that if Trump loses power in Washington, it would be a strong signal to Putin that his allies are faltering and he can no longer rely on Trump, significantly worsening his position.

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If there are changes in Washington, the most important signal for Putin will be that his allies are experiencing setbacks and that he can no longer rely on D. Trump. This would also confirm that, with Trump losing power, Putin's situation will significantly worsen.

However, Sheremeta also warns that Putin could easily opt for more aggressive actions within this timeframe. He posits that Putin might announce a large-scale mobilization within the next two months, transforming the conflict into a full-scale war. While Russia could mobilize millions, Ukraine's technological capabilities, particularly its use of drones, could make further Russian advances prohibitively expensive.

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Over the next two and a half years, Putin could start negotiations or just as easily take much more aggressive actions.

The professor advises against underestimating Russia's military strength, stating that the country has bolstered its military capabilities despite claims of economic weakness. He emphasizes that Putin's actions in the coming years will be heavily influenced by the evolving political landscape in the United States.

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Then it would no longer be a special military operation, but a full-scale war. In that case, they could mobilize millions of people. Ukraine does not have such capabilities. Fortunately, Ukraine has managed to develop technological capabilities that would make further Russian advances prohibitively expensive, as most battles in Ukraine today can be waged using unmanned aerial vehicles.