Putin may test NATO alliance with limited attack in coming years, US intelligence assesses- report

Russian President Vladimir Putin might attempt a limited assault on a NATO member in the next few years to test the alliance's unity, according to new US intelligence reports cited by The Wall Street Journal. Previously, US assessments suggested Putin would avoid attacking a NATO country while engaged in Ukraine, but a recent evaluation indicates that mounting internal pressure for a victory could alter his plans.

This assessment comes as Ukraine's drone attacks inflict significant damage on Russia's military and oil infrastructure, while Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties. The report points to recent incidents, such as drones entering Romanian airspace and a Russian cruise missile landing in Poland, as potential probing attacks designed to gauge NATO's response.

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It has always been a goal [of Russia’s] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies.

"It has always been a goal [of Russia’s] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies," Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told WSJ. She highlighted that while a direct land incursion is considered an extreme scenario with low initial likelihood, it would trigger NATO's Article Five collective defense clause. However, the response to other threats, like cyber or hybrid attacks, remains less clear.

Conley noted that NATO has historically struggled to respond to "sub-Article Five" attacks, with allies often preferring to avoid escalation. This concern is amplified by reports of diminishing US weapons stockpiles due to transfers to Ukraine and ongoing conflicts, potentially impacting the US's ability to respond effectively in a future confrontation with Russia.

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This has always been NATO’s challenge to respond to a sub-Article Five attack, and it’s been very true that to this point, NATO allies have preferred not to escalate.