Putin plays a game of misdirection

A Russian spy plane intercepted by Poland in the Baltic Sea is presented as the latest sign that Europe’s confrontation with Moscow is moving through increasingly frequent confrontations.

The commentary recalls Defense Minister Margarita Robles’s warning two years ago that “the threat of war is absolute” and that European society was not fully aware of the danger. It says Vladimir Putin has since intensified what it calls hybrid warfare on European territory, citing cyberattacks, airspace violations, explosive drone attacks and incursions by ships into other countries’ territorial waters.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes the third world war has already begun and that Russia is attacking Europe as part of it. The commentary also says Russia failed in its attempt to invade Ukraine, while Ukrainian drones and explosives funded by European countries have struck Russian refineries and energy facilities.

Against that backdrop, CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent visit to Moscow has generated speculation. One published explanation for the trip was an effort to prevent a Russian military attack on a NATO member, which would mark a shift from hybrid warfare to open conflict. The piece notes that the last comparable visit by a senior U.S. intelligence official to Russia took place in 2021, shortly before the invasion of Ukraine.

Vatican foreign-affairs official Paul Richard Gallagher also visited Moscow and met Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin adviser Yuri Ushakov. Little is known about those discussions, but the commentary says Gallagher may have conveyed a warning against opening a conflict with NATO. It portrays Russia as operationally weakened and argues that failure in Ukraine cannot be concealed by starting another war, while concluding that Putin’s intentions remain unknowable.

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The threat of war is absolute and society is not fully aware