Putin's Stubbornness in Ukraine Could Lead to Worst-Case Scenario, Says Former Swedish PM

Former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin's current approach to the war in Ukraine could result in a significant defeat for Russia. Bildt argues that Putin's ambition to capture all of Donbas, let alone subjugate all of Ukraine, is an unrealistic goal.

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If the Russian president were to soberly assess the situation in the war in Ukraine, he would seek a ceasefire. However, it seems he is choosing to increase tensions. If V. Putin continues to act this way, he will harm himself the most.

Bildt suggests that a sober assessment of the war's situation would lead Putin to seek a ceasefire along the current front lines. However, he observes that Putin appears to be escalating tensions instead. The former Swedish leader believes that continuing on this path will ultimately harm Putin the most. Bildt also noted that Putin's attempts to pressure the U.S. to force Ukraine into ceding territory have failed, leading Russia to rely on military force.

While acknowledging that strikes on civilian infrastructure cause suffering, Bildt asserts that winning a war solely through aerial bombardment is impossible, a lesson he believes Ukraine will demonstrate. He points out that Russia's offensive on the front lines has stalled, with progress being very slow. Conversely, Ukraine is increasingly striking targets deep within Russia, inflicting significant damage.

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Although these strikes cause much suffering, it is impossible to win a war solely through aerial bombardment – this will also be the case in Ukraine.

Bildt specifically emphasized the importance of Ukraine's strikes on Crimea, noting that the peninsula, not Donbas, is Putin's primary focus due to its immense symbolic value. He recalled that the 2014 annexation of Crimea significantly boosted Putin's popularity and served as a precursor to the full-scale invasion in 2022. Bildt concluded that Putin's initial objective of militarily and politically conquering all of Ukraine is now unattainable. Therefore, he maintains that the most rational decision for the Kremlin would be to agree to a ceasefire now, warning that Putin might not even achieve the limited part of Donetsk Oblast he seeks and could very likely lose Crimea.

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If he continues to act this way, he will likely not even get that small part of the Donetsk region he is aiming for, and it is very likely that he will lose Crimea.