Quebec separatists may win power but will delay referendum until Trump leaves office

Quebec is set to hold elections on October 5, with current polling indicating a strong possibility that separatists will form the next government. However, the pro-independence Parti Québécois (PQ) has stated it will not hold a referendum on secession from Canada as long as Donald Trump remains U.S. president.

Premier François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government, which first came to power in 2018 and won re-election in 2022, is currently trailing the PQ in voter surveys. This shift is attributed to voter fatigue and dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living and a struggling healthcare system.

The PQ, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has historically championed Quebec's independence. If elected, the party aims to bring Quebec closer to sovereignty, but Plamondon has explicitly stated that a referendum will be postponed until after Trump's potential term ends in 2029. This strategic delay reflects concerns about Trump's unpopularity in the province and the potential impact of U.S. political dynamics on Quebec's aspirations.

Quebec has held two previous referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995, both of which failed to achieve secession. Recent polls over the past two years have consistently shown a solid majority of Quebecers opposing separation from Canada. The province has also been significantly affected by the escalating trade war between the U.S. and Canada, further complicating the political landscape.