Red Sea tanker traffic rises as progress in US-Iran talks buoys shippers

Vessel traffic through the critical Bab el-Mandeb strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, saw an increase to 28 ships on Monday, according to Kpler shipping data.

This rise in traffic occurs against a backdrop of cautious optimism stemming from potential progress in US-Iran negotiations. The Bab el-Mandeb strait has gained strategic importance, particularly following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, recent days have seen heightened concerns that Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels might disrupt this vital waterway, potentially blocking Gulf energy supplies.

While traffic through Bab el-Mandeb was still below its monthly peak of 46 vessels on July 14, the uptick is notable. US President Donald Trump reported on Monday that negotiations with Iran were advancing, suggesting a possible resolution to recent hostilities. Yet, he cautioned that military action, paused over the weekend, could be reinstated if talks falter.

Of the vessels entering the Red Sea on Monday, four were oil tankers. Ten oil tankers were among the 16 vessels exiting the Red Sea, underscoring the significant role of energy shipments through the waterway. The Hong Kong-flagged New Pearl, carrying two million barrels of Saudi crude oil, departed the Red Sea for China, marking the fourth Chinese supertanker to leave since the Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi shipping.

Tensions have escalated between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, with the rebels attacking oil tankers and Aramco facilities along the Red Sea coast. The Red Sea has become a primary route for Gulf oil, especially with the Strait of Hormuz closed. Iran had previously closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March after joint Israeli-US strikes, causing global energy prices to surge. US-Iran talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes, have seen little progress. The US resumed strikes on Iran earlier this month in response to attacks on vessels transiting the strait.