Researcher: Russia May Use Migration to Divide Europe

Russia may be exploiting migration flows to sow fear, unrest, and division within Europe, according to analysis of recent events concerning the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. Senior researcher Hans Lucht from the Danish Institute for International Studies (Diis) finds this scenario plausible, noting Russia's past use of migrants to destabilize European countries.

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It is unfortunately a plausible scenario. Russia has previously used migrants to create fear, unrest, and division in Europe.

This assessment follows reports from Danish Minister of Immigration and Integration Morten Bødskov, who stated that information presented at an EU meeting indicated significant pro-Russian activity on social media related to the Ceuta situation. At least 6,000 posts from pro-Russian accounts on platforms like Telegram and various websites were identified. These posts allegedly aimed to spread narratives of collapsing EU border cooperation and widespread chaos in Europe.

Lucht draws parallels to a similar pattern observed at the border between Poland and Belarus, where migrants were allegedly used to create friction. He cited examples of false reports about migrant violence in Polish villages and videos portraying Europe as hypocritical and violent. Simultaneously, videos purportedly from migrants in Germany encouraged others to attempt similar journeys.

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The purpose is to show that Europe is weak, that Europe has no borders, and that one can simply travel into Europe.

The researcher explained that Russia's objective is to portray Europe as weak and borderless, while also depicting it as violent and hypocritical, unable to uphold its own norms. Migration, he argues, is an ideal topic for actors seeking to create unrest in Europe, especially given Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Weakening European morale and pitting member states against each other serves Russia's strategic interests.

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Another purpose is to show that Europe is violent and hypocritical and in reality cannot live up to its own norms.

Lucht warned that European politicians could inadvertently amplify the uncertainty generated by influence campaigns. He pointed to the rapid, harsh political reactions from Italy and Denmark towards Spain during the Ceuta crisis as an example of how sensitive the migration issue is. He cautioned that such reactions could lead to internal European conflict, playing into narratives not in Europe's long-term interest.

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There are not many shocks needed before Europe flies into each other's throats.