Retired U.S. General Hodges: Russia aims to weaken NATO, may test alliance with Baltic incidents

Retired U.S. General Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, assesses that Russia's primary objective is not a military conquest of Europe but rather the erosion of Western support for Ukraine and the fracturing of NATO unity. He argues that Moscow employs "gray zone" tactics, including drone incursions, sabotage, and other forms of pressure, to manipulate public opinion and political decisions in Western countries.

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Russia's goal is not to conquer all of Europe as during the Cold War. The Kremlin's primary goal is for countries to stop supporting Ukraine.

Hodges dismissed the notion that Russian attacks are retaliatory, asserting that Russia has been attacking civilian targets and infrastructure since the outset of the conflict. He contrasted Ukraine's strategic military targeting with Russia's continued strikes on cities, emphasizing that Ukraine has effectively halted Russian ground operations and neutralized the Black Sea Fleet as a significant factor.

He highlighted the importance of Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, noting that export revenues from oil and gas are crucial for financing the war. Hodges pointed out that Ukraine is developing capabilities for deep strikes within Russian territory, making it increasingly difficult for Moscow to protect key facilities. He suggested Ukraine could penetrate up to a thousand kilometers into Russian territory, a feat Russia cannot prevent.

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All of this should scare our residents so that they pressure governments to stop supporting Ukraine. That is their first goal.

Regarding European security challenges, Hodges warned that Russia aims to weaken NATO and distance Europe from the United States. He speculated that Russia might test the alliance's readiness through limited incidents, potentially in the Baltic region, such as a ground attack on Daugavpils in Latvia or Narva in Estonia, or an incursion near the Suwałki Corridor in Lithuania. Hodges believes Russia would then pause, posing the question of whether NATO would risk nuclear war over such an incident.

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I can imagine a ground attack on Daugavpils in Latvia or Narva in Estonia, or even an attack in Lithuania around the Suwałki Corridor. Then they would stop and say: do you really want a nuclear war over this?