Risk of rationing: "Butter knife principle"

The ongoing conflict in Iran is casting a long shadow over global energy markets, and Sweden is not immune to its potential repercussions. Svenska Dagbladet reports that the heightened risk of oil supply disruptions, particularly concerning shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz, is raising the specter of fuel rationing within Sweden.

This situation echoes past energy crises, with Sweden having experienced fossil fuel shortages only twice before, in 1956 and 1974. Commodity analyst Christian Kopfer warns that if the current geopolitical instability continues into the summer months of June and July, the country may be compelled to implement rationing measures. This is a stark reminder of the fragility of global supply chains and Sweden's vulnerability to international conflicts.

The concerns are not limited to Sweden. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a grave warning regarding Europe's aviation fuel supply, indicating a potential shortage within the next six weeks. This underscores the widespread impact of the Iranian conflict on energy security across the continent, highlighting the interconnectedness of global energy systems.

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If this situation continues into June-July, then we are probably there, I think.