Romania narrowly passes investment rating test, minister says

Romania has narrowly passed a critical test, retaining its investment-grade rating from Fitch amid challenging economic conditions. Interim Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare described the reaffirmation as a difficult achievement, highlighting the sustained effort by state financial institutions. He stressed that the country remains under close scrutiny from rating agencies, with any misstep potentially leading to severe repercussions.

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Romania remains in the category recommended for investments - a new test passed narrowly. The Fitch result gives us time, not comfort.

Nazare credited an exceptional institutional effort, coordinated between the Finance Ministry and the National Bank of Romania, for securing the rating. He also noted the responsibility shown by political leaders in reaching consensus on legislative projects crucial for accessing European funds from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The minister pointed to the significant reduction in the cash deficit in the first half of the year and the government's projected deficit of 5.9% of GDP for 2026, below the 6% target, as factors contributing to Fitch's decision.

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Romania remains closely monitored by rating agencies - any misstep can come with severe sanctions in the coming period.

However, Nazare cautioned that political instability has become the most sensitive element for investors and rating agencies. He explained that international markets are closely watching Romania's political stability, the capacity to form a functional government, and the continuity of fiscal and budgetary policies. Fitch's report explicitly warns that prolonged political deadlock could hinder the implementation of measures, delay PNRR reforms, and put the rating under pressure. Therefore, Romania must project credibility through a functional majority, consistent reforms, adherence to deficit reduction targets, and the avoidance of unfunded budgetary initiatives to protect its financing costs, investments, and economy.

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The maintenance of the Fitch rating came in a very difficult context and with a minimal margin of safety.

Looking ahead, Nazare mentioned that Moody's upcoming evaluation is also anticipated. Moody's currently maintains Romania at the lowest investment-grade level with a negative outlook. The finance minister stated that the Fitch result provides valuable time but not a sense of comfort, underscoring the need for continued vigilance and responsible governance.

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In this moment, the most sensitive element, which is of concern to international markets, remains the political situation.