Russia Loses Another Grain Export Route as Baltic States Block Transit

Russia is about to lose another route for shipping grain abroad. The Baltic states plan to block Russian grain transit through their ports after Ukrainian attacks disrupted much of Russia’s export infrastructure on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said Russian grain exports using Lithuanian infrastructure were “contrary to our values.” He added that the restrictions would not affect grain transit between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said Ukrainian intelligence had information about large shipments of grain stolen from occupied Ukrainian territories. The grain was allegedly being prepared for illegal export through the Baltic states. He instructed Latvian institutions to work with Kyiv on a mechanism to block those shipments.

Lithuania also suspects that some grain declared as Russian actually comes from occupied parts of Ukraine. Its Veterinary Service collected samples at the port of Klaipėda from grain documented as Russian and sent them to France for tests to determine its origin.

The move comes as Russia’s southern export capacity weakens. In the previous export season, from July 2025 to June 2026, 90 percent of Russia’s 46.3 million tonnes of seaborne grain exports passed through Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports. Baltic Russian ports handled 1 million tonnes. Since the start of the new season, Ukrainian forces have disrupted more than 80 percent of Russia’s grain export capacity, while August wheat exports fell to 1.9 million tonnes, their lowest level in 16 years, according to SovEcon.

Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, said Russian wheat exports through the Baltic states could reach 5 million to 6 million tonnes this year, or even 10 million tonnes if Estonian ports were included. That estimate did not account for the possibility that the Baltic states would block the trade. Russia may then have only one major alternative route, through Arctic ports, where approaching winter and difficult ice conditions pose problems for standard bulk carriers.

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Russian grain exports using Lithuanian infrastructure are contrary to our values.