Russia poses no direct military threat to Latvia, but long-term risks remain, security agency says

Latvia's Security Service (SAB) has assessed that Russia currently poses no direct military threat to the country. However, the agency cautioned that various indicators suggest potential long-term strategic plans by Moscow, significantly increasing security risks for Europe.

The SAB report highlights that Vladimir Putin's regime continues to operate with a distorted perception of threats. This is exacerbated by the increasing isolation of the Kremlin elite and a lack of internal critical viewpoints. Consequently, Russia's stance towards Western nations, including Latvia, is becoming progressively more confrontational and aggressive.

Observations by the SAB, in collaboration with other EU and NATO intelligence services, indicate that Russia's perception of Latvia is increasingly mirroring its pre-war view of Ukraine. This trend could foster more aggressive Russian activities over a longer period. The agency pointed to Russia's intensified information activities and provocative rhetoric, citing unsubstantiated accusations against Latvia regarding drone attacks on Russia and the dissemination of false information about language proficiency tests.

Furthermore, the SAB believes Russia's heightened information campaigns, possibly driven by domestic economic and internal challenges, aim to pressure both Latvia and its allies to reduce support for Ukraine. The Commander of the Latvian National Armed Forces, Kaspars Pudāns, echoed these sentiments, stating that while direct military threats are absent, the forces are prepared for potential hybrid provocations from Russia. He noted the absence of increased military presence near Latvia's borders, differentiating the current situation from Russia's military buildup near Ukraine in 2021.

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Patlaban Krievija Latvijai nerada tiešu militāro apdraudējumu, tomēr vienlaikus NBS rēķinās ar iespējamām hibrīdām Krievijas provokācijām.