Russia ramps up aerial attacks as it struggles on the ground in Ukraine

Russia has significantly ramped up its aerial assaults on Ukraine in recent months, deploying more drones and high-speed missiles than ever before. This escalation comes as Moscow's ground forces struggle to achieve meaningful advances on the battlefield. The strategy behind these massive strikes involves overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses through carefully orchestrated waves of cheap drones, followed by fast-moving ballistic and cruise missiles, designed to inflict maximum damage.

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overwhelm

Ukrainian authorities reported that Tuesday's assault included eight high-speed "Zircon" missiles, a record number for a single attack. These hypersonic missiles are notoriously difficult to intercept. The barrage resulted in 23 deaths and 151 injuries across Ukraine, according to official figures. Experts believe these attacks serve a dual purpose: to inflict immediate damage and to sow fear among the civilian population, thereby increasing public pressure on Ukraine's leaders to end the war.

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Russia is now really struggling to take any meaningful gains on the battlefield.

Thomas Withington, an associate fellow for military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), noted that Russia's increasing reliance on air power stems from its struggles on the ground. "Russia is now really struggling to take any meaningful gains on the battlefield," Withington told CNN. "What that means is that if you're Russia… your mechanism for applying military pressure on Ukraine is diminished." He added that air power might be the "only avenue actually now open to the Russian leadership in terms of hoping to have any kind of strategic effect on Ukraine."

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What that means is that if you're Russia… your mechanism for applying military pressure on Ukraine is diminished.

Analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates a substantial increase in drone launches, from approximately 5,000 Shahed attack drones per month earlier this year to over 8,000 last month. Despite the sheer volume, analysts at RUSI and CSIS acknowledge that Ukraine's air defense systems are performing remarkably well, maintaining interception rates of around 90% for drones. However, Ukraine faces greater challenges intercepting ballistic and hypersonic missiles due to their extreme speeds, requiring more advanced interceptor systems. Tuesday's attacks alone included 41 ballistic missiles, a figure exceeding the total launched by Russia throughout the previous month, with thirty of those successfully hitting targets.

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I think that given this situation on the ground, the use of air power is possibly the only avenue actually now open to the Russian leadership in terms of hoping to have any kind of strategic effect on Ukraine.