Russia's nuclear arsenal proves impotent in Ukraine's grinding war

Russia's vast nuclear arsenal has seemingly proven impotent in its grinding war in Ukraine, raising questions about the purpose of its tactical nuclear weapons. Despite Ukraine's persistent drone and missile attacks, including strikes on Moscow and damage to major Russian refineries, Russia has so far refrained from crossing the nuclear threshold.

The conflict has largely devolved into a stalemate. While Russian forces control about 90 percent of the territory in eastern Donbas, their ground advances have slowed dramatically, moving less than 100 meters per day. This lack of significant progress further complicates any rationale for escalating to nuclear use.

Historically, nuclear weapons have shown little effectiveness in conflicts between nuclear powers and non-nuclear adversaries. Neither the United States nor the Soviet Union achieved decisive victories in their respective wars in Afghanistan despite possessing nuclear capabilities. The sole wartime use of nuclear weapons by the U.S. against Japan in 1945 is often cited, but historians debate whether conventional means could have achieved surrender, suggesting the nuclear bombings also served as a geopolitical signal to the Soviet Union.

Furthermore, the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia in Donbas, a region Moscow claims as its own territory, presents significant practical and strategic challenges. A detonation could create radioactive fallout that drifts back into Russian territory. Moscow's claim over the region makes it strategically nonsensical to bomb what it considers sovereign soil, further diminishing the likelihood of such an extreme escalation.