Russia's offensive against Kyiv would be noticeable, says military expert

Ukraine is increasingly concerned about Russia preparing a new offensive from the north, a move that could potentially threaten the capital Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia might be drawing Belarus into the conflict, especially as both nations conduct joint nuclear exercises. Zelenskyy has stated Ukraine will "act preventatively" against Belarus if it engages in aggressive actions.

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If Russia would load up for an offensive against Kyiv, it will be noticed.

Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, however, maintains his country will not enter the conflict unless attacked by Ukraine. Despite this, Russian forces have previously used Belarusian territory during the invasion. The Ukrainian leadership fears Russia could launch a broader offensive along the northern front, possibly targeting Chernihiv, a city north of Kyiv situated on a highway leading to the Belarusian border.

In response, Ukraine has decided to bolster its northern defenses with additional troops, a decision announced by Zelenskyy following new intelligence assessments. Major Roger Djupsjö, a military instructor at the Swedish Defence University, suggests Russia is attempting a tactical shift by opening a new front. Such a move would force Ukraine to divert units from other areas to protect its capital.

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They must be on their guard. There will be consequences if they act aggressively against Ukraine.

However, Djupsjö notes that Russia's resources are not unlimited, and the likelihood of Belarusian soldiers directly engaging in combat is low. He points out that Ukraine's defenses in the north have significantly improved since the early weeks of the invasion, with fortified positions and drone units. The terrain, characterized by dense forests, also presents challenges for advancing forces. After more than four years of full-scale war, Djupsjö believes it has become nearly impossible for either side to achieve tactical surprise. "If Russia were to load up for an offensive against Kyiv, it would be noticed," he stated, suggesting Ukraine's current warnings signal its awareness of Russian intentions.

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If Russia would load up for an offensive against Kyiv, it will be noticed.