Russia's War in Ukraine Erodes Putin's Power Base, Experts Say

Russia's war in Ukraine is beginning to erode President Vladimir Putin's power, former Russian Central Bank advisor Alexandra Prokopenko and Oxford professor Peter Frankopan suggest. They believe mounting war costs, economic pressure, and growing public dissatisfaction are early signs of weakening Kremlin authority, even as Putin maintains political control.

In an opinion piece for the Financial Times, Prokopenko noted that the war has compelled the Kremlin to abandon its long-standing fiscal discipline. The government is now altering budget rules to ensure continuous war financing. A notable step is granting the Finance Ministry greater power to increase state spending and debt without formal budget approval. Russia's budget deficit has doubled compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 2.6% of GDP by May, with the National Wealth Fund diminishing to cover budget shortfalls.

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An autocracy under siege is rewriting fiscal rules while ignoring parliament and refusing to acknowledge the growing, uncontrollable danger. This may not be as dramatic as a coup, but this is how a regime's decline begins.

"An autocracy under siege is rewriting fiscal rules while ignoring parliament and refusing to acknowledge the growing, uncontrollable danger. This may not be as dramatic as a coup, but this is how a regime's decline begins," Prokopenko wrote. Simultaneously, war-related pressures are intensifying. Ukrainian drone attacks are increasingly targeting Russian territory, including oil refineries and defense facilities. Russian military casualties are rising, and compensation costs for soldiers' families are escalating.

Domestically, the economy is strained. Fuel shortages have led to long queues at gas stations, while inflation and high interest rates burden citizens. Prokopenko stated that the Kremlin can no longer simultaneously fund the war, control inflation, and maintain economic growth. "The war is increasingly financed by burdening the public and suspending the country's own rules. If this continues, Russia will face a poorer economy, a more angry public, a fragile financial system, and unreliable war funding," she warned. Pressure is also emerging from groups that previously supported the military operation.

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The war is increasingly financed by burdening the public and suspending the country's own rules. If this continues, Russia will face a poorer economy, a more angry public, a fragile financial system, and unreliable war funding.