Russian opposition leader Ilya Yashin expects military action in the Baltics

Ilya Yashin expects buses to appear in Russian villages and small towns after this month’s elections, carrying more men to the front in Ukraine. The prominent Russian opposition politician estimates that 300,000 to 500,000 men could be recruited by the end of the year.

“They will be trained during the winter and spring months. Then, next summer, there will be another major offensive,” Yashin told Helsingin Sanomat, describing what he believes are President Vladimir Putin’s intentions.

“

They will be trained during the winter and spring months. Then, next summer, there will be another major offensive.

Yashin also sees a risk of more direct Russian aggression against NATO countries in Europe. He suggested that people in military uniforms could appear in Narva and seize border positions, while Putin denied responsibility, as he did during the Crimea events. In his view, the aim would be to test NATO’s reaction and unity. “If such a provocation occurred and NATO could not respond, we would wake up in a different world,” he said.

The interview comes as Russia’s hybrid actions against European NATO states have increased, according to the article. Yashin said Putin is widely expected to intensify the war against Ukraine and wants a convincing victory for the ruling United Russia party in the State Duma elections on Sept. 18-20. The last opposition party to oppose the war, Yabloko, has been excluded from the ballot. Yashin represented the party in his twenties, when he was active alongside Alexei Navalny.

“

If such a provocation occurred and NATO could not respond, we would wake up in a different world.

Yashin spent more than two years as a political prisoner after authorities arrested him in June 2022 for publicly commenting on mass killings allegedly carried out by Russian soldiers in Bucha, Ukraine. He received a sentence of more than eight years for spreading “false information” about the armed forces. He described a four-square-meter cell in a damp basement at a prison camp in Safonovo, in the Smolensk region, with a toilet, sink and bed that was raised against the wall each morning at five. He received 40 minutes of outdoor time a day.

Released in August 2024 as part of a large prisoner exchange, Yashin was forced into exile. Russia’s Foreign Ministry declared him stateless last September. He has settled in Germany and was elected leader of Peaceful Russia, a new party formed by exiled Russian opposition figures in Berlin in June. “We did not establish a foundation or a committee, but a political party,” he said, making clear that he wants power in Russia.

“

We did not establish a foundation or a committee, but a political party.