Saudi Arabia Plans Major Offensive Against Houthis in Yemen to Secure Oil Routes

Saudi Arabia is reportedly gearing up for a major military offensive against Houthi rebels in central Yemen, with sources suggesting operations could involve both sea and land forces. This potential move is seen as an effort to break the Houthi chokehold on crucial oil export routes through the southern Red Sea.

Recent troop movements indicate Saudi forces withdrawing from eastern Yemen, possibly in preparation for a land offensive. Concurrently, Riyadh is actively organizing a multinational maritime defense coalition. A joint statement supporting this initiative has been issued by 14 countries, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, and Djibouti. The Saudi defense ministry confirmed this support on Thursday.

The Iran-aligned Houthis, who control Yemen's capital Sana'a and significant portions of the Red Sea coast, announced a blockade on Saudi ships on July 20. They deny planning to impose tolls on all vessels, stating the blockade will be lifted once Saudi Arabia ends its blockade on Yemen. The group frames the dispute with Saudi Arabia as being about Yemen's future, not directly about Iran.

Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen's civil war in 2015 to support the UN-recognized government against the Houthi rebels. The kingdom has also approached the U.S. and several European nations, including Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, to join the Red Sea coalition. The EU already operates a naval mission, Aspides, in the region, but it remains unclear if the Houthi blockade is general or specifically targets Saudi vessels.

If the Red Sea route becomes unusable for Saudi shipping, in addition to potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, the kingdom's oil exports would be severely constrained. Before regional tensions escalated, up to 80% of Saudi crude exports passed through Hormuz. The Red Sea route has since gained critical importance, with over half of Saudi oil now transported overland to Yanbu for export.