Saudi Arabia's New Agreement with Turkey, Pakistan Puts Stability on Dangerous Hedge

A new joint defense agreement signed in Mecca between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan could significantly alter the Middle East's strategic landscape. The pact, announced Friday, stipulates that an armed attack on any one of the three nations will be considered an attack on all.

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the arrangement was technically equivalent to NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense commitment.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described the arrangement as technically equivalent to NATO's Article 5 collective-defense commitment. The alliance will establish a ministerial committee and a general secretariat based in Saudi Arabia, with Egypt potentially joining later. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated the agreement is founded on "the principle of collective deterrence" and aims to expand cooperation in security, defense, and counterterrorism.

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the agreement was based on “the principle of collective deterrence” and would expand security, defense, and counterterrorism cooperation.

However, the pact has raised concerns regarding its implications for regional stability and its potential impact on relations with Israel. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif called for a "united military front" against Israel, framing it as a "threat to the entire Muslim world" and linking it to the unresolved Palestinian issue.

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a united military front’ against Israel, describing it as a “threat to the entire Muslim world.”

Analysts offer differing interpretations of Saudi Arabia's motivations. Dr. Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies suggests the pact represents a "hedge" for Saudi Arabia, which needs stability and is seeking alternatives amid perceived vulnerability to regional threats. Former national security council head Jacob Nagel views it as a "diplomatic maneuver" to pressure the U.S. administration, as Saudi Arabia feels increasingly exposed following attacks by Iran and its proxies.

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This is hedging.