Saxony-Anhalt election: How an AfD government could affect Baden-Württemberg

The AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt could become more than a distant political event for Baden-Württemberg if the party succeeds in forming the state government. Baden-Württemberg Minister-President Cem Özdemir has already warned of a security risk if the AfD takes the Interior Ministry and, with it, supervision of the state’s domestic intelligence agency. Finance Minister Danyal Bayaz has even raised the possibility of financial sanctions through the state equalization system.

“

Saxony-Anhalt’s weight is relatively small, with four votes, and there are no other AfD-governed states.

Political scientists, however, view the likely impact more soberly. In the Bundesrat, where the states help decide some federal laws, including measures with financial implications, an AfD-led Saxony-Anhalt government would have limited leverage, according to Ulrich Eith. The Bundesrat does not require unanimity, and majorities do not always follow party lines.

Marc Debus of the University of Mannheim also sees no realistic avenue for a blockade. “Saxony-Anhalt’s weight is relatively small, with four votes, and there are no other AfD-governed states,” he said. The state government could introduce its own legislative proposals, he added, but he did not see how a proposal from a potentially AfD-led government could win a majority.

“

I do not see how a legislative proposal from a potentially AfD-led government in Saxony-Anhalt could win a majority.

Eith also expects the Conference of State Premiers to impose practical limits. It remains difficult to predict how AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund would act there if he became minister-president despite the current lack of a majority. Eith said an AfD-led government might eventually conclude that a hard confrontational course would achieve little in such forums. He pointed to Italy, where some fears surrounding Giorgia Meloni’s accession to government did not materialize.

“

I can imagine that an AfD-led state government might conclude that a hard confrontational course in these bodies would achieve little.

Bayaz’s idea of financially penalizing Saxony-Anhalt also faces major legal obstacles. Eith and fellow Mannheim political scientist Thomas König said the state equalization system is set out in the constitution and laws. “This is not a voluntary act of charity,” Eith said. Suspending or reducing payments would require changes to those laws. Bayaz had told Handelsblatt before the election that simply allowing the AfD into government could not, on its own, provide a legal basis for sanctions.

“

This is not a voluntary act of charity.