Saxony-Anhalt Was Only the Beginning: What Awaits Germany’s Chancellor

Friedrich Merz had barely finished trying to steer voters away from the AfD when Saxony-Anhalt delivered a landslide victory for the right-wing party. The CDU, by contrast, suffered a disaster and was cut in half. In Berlin, the chancellor is now openly weakened, and members of his own party are already asking whether they chose the wrong person for the job after little more than a year.

Merz visited the industrial site in Leuna near Leipzig on Thursday. Surrounded by CDU politicians, heavily armed security personnel and a small group of journalists, he warned: “Anyone who wants Saxony-Anhalt to remain an attractive location must not vote for the AfD.” Voters responded on Sunday, and the result has left the chancellor facing a succession of further state elections.

Berlin’s CDU took power after the capital repeated its badly organized 2023 election. It had promised to tackle the chaos for which Berlin was known. But Mayor Kai Wegner became associated with a series of controversies. The latest followed a left-wing extremist attack in January that left tens of thousands of Berliners without electricity for days. Wegner was initially unreachable during the crisis and later played tennis with his partner, a member of his government. When questioned, he offered contradictory accounts and drew the chancellery into the dispute by saying he had spoken with Merz several times. Merz denied that.

The CDU replaced Wegner as its lead candidate during the summer. Polls now show the party competing with the Left and the AfD for first place. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will vote on Sept. 20. The CDU has little to lose in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where it won only 13 percent in 2021 and is polling several points lower now. The election could nevertheless give the German government some breathing room. The SPD has recently caught up with the long-leading AfD in polls, while popular state premier Manuela Schwesig could draw voters from other parties into a direct contest with the far right.

Thuringia is not scheduled to vote again until 2029, but its government is in crisis. The article identifies next April as the likely major showdown for Merz and his party, while offering only the opening of the Thuringia section before it ends.

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Anyone who wants Saxony-Anhalt to remain an attractive location must not vote for the AfD.