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🇧🇪 Belgium /Disasters & Emergencies

Scientists Test Wildfire Prediction Model During High Fens Blaze

From VRT NWS · () Dutch

Translated from Dutch, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Ongoing story
  • Scientists are testing a wildfire prediction model during the large forest fire in the High Fens region of Belgium.
  • The model simulates how, where, and how fast a wildfire will spread, with initial results showing promise.
  • Researchers are still gathering crucial data, such as detailed maps of soil and vegetation, to make the model reliable for future use by fire services.

Scientists are leveraging the ongoing large forest fire in Belgium's High Fens region to test an experimental predictive model designed to forecast the behavior of natural fires. The model aims to simulate the spread, direction, speed, and intensity of wildfires, offering valuable insights for future fire management.

We are still missing a lot of data to make the model reliable, although the first results are very promising.

— Jan BaetensDescribing the current state of the wildfire prediction model.

Professor Jan Baetens from Ghent University (UGent) stated that while the initial results appear promising, the model is not yet ready for operational use by the fire brigade. "We still lack a lot of data to make the model reliable," Baetens explained. Crucial missing information includes detailed maps of the soil and vegetation across Belgium, which are essential for accurate predictions.

"The ultimate goal of the model is to understand how the fire will spread, how quickly it will happen, and to which zones. But also whether the fire will become more or less intense," Baetens elaborated. He noted that countries like France, Italy, and Spain already utilize similar prediction models, which provide fire services with enhanced situational awareness and projections for the next 6 to 10 hours.

The first results are positive at first glance.

— Jan BaetensCommenting on the initial outcomes of the model testing.

While the team has tested models from other countries, they are adapting one specific model to the unique characteristics of their region. The current challenge lies in acquiring sufficient data to run the model with adequate reliability. Colleagues at the University of Liège are working on creating the necessary detailed maps, a process that requires significant time and expertise. Baetens emphasized that the model's development is ongoing, and this real-world fire provides an ideal opportunity for extensive testing and refinement.

The ultimate goal of the model is to know how the fire will spread, how quickly that will happen, and to which zones. But also whether the fire will become more or less intense.

— Jan BaetensExplaining the objectives of the prediction model.

The project aims to eventually provide a tool that can not only predict fire behavior but also assist in better land management to prevent forest fires in the future. The collaboration between different universities and the involvement of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) highlight the comprehensive approach being taken to enhance wildfire response capabilities in Belgium and potentially beyond.

It is an experimental prediction model. The fire department cannot use it yet, it is still too early for that. But this fire gives us the ideal opportunity to test the model extensively.

— Jan BaetensClarifying the model's current status and its utility in the ongoing fire.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by VRT NWS in Dutch. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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