Senators see impeachment of Supreme Court justices as possible, while Alcolumbre waits for election results

The possibility of impeaching a justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court has moved from political fantasy to a scenario some senators now consider realistic. But Senate President Davi Alcolumbre is not expected to act before the elections.

People close to Alcolumbre say he will not give in to pressure from supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro to remove court members before voters choose the next president and 54 new senators. Only then, they say, will he decide whether to open impeachment proceedings and whom they might target.

The calculation is closely tied to Alcolumbre’s campaign to retain the Senate presidency next year. The vote traditionally takes place on the first day of Congress’s session in February. Allies say Alcolumbre understands that impeachment proceedings against Justice Alexandre de Moraes are the only bargaining chip capable of attracting Bolsonaro-aligned senators to his reelection bid. He therefore needs to know how much influence that group will have after the election.

Alcolumbre is a friend of Moraes and has consistently opposed removing him from office. People close to the Senate president say that position has not changed. They acknowledge, however, that the profile of the senators elected could make it difficult to block proceedings.

Moraes’s impeachment has become a central campaign for Bolsonaro’s allies following the former president’s conviction for an attempted coup. Politicians from different camps say Justice André Mendonça gave the campaign fresh momentum when he disclosed details on Tuesday about Moraes’s relationship with former banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master.

People close to Alcolumbre have also discussed whether to seek Mendonça’s impeachment, reflecting the Senate president’s hostility toward him. One interlocutor argues that Mendonça bypassed formal procedure by requesting an investigation into Moraes. Another says some of the arguments against Mendonça rely on an unsigned report that Moraes cited when seeking an investigation of his colleague for abuse of authority. Even government-aligned senators who once dismissed the idea now say impeachment has become a real possibility. One party leader, speaking anonymously, said the scandal could trigger judicial reform next year, potentially including the impeachment of more than one justice.