Serbian opposition warns against underestimating Vučić, urges unity

Opposition leaders in Serbia are urging caution, warning against complacency despite recent opinion polls that suggest a potential weakening of President Aleksandar Vučić's support. Zdravko Ponoš, leader of the Serbia Center party, advised against underestimating Vučić, even with seemingly unfavorable poll numbers. He described some of the ruling party's campaign tactics as absurd but stressed that Vučić should not be taken lightly.

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Without regard for the winning mood and surveys that look like Aleksandar Vučić has already fallen – I would be much more careful. Maybe they are crazy, maybe it's funny to us, maybe it's worthy of disgust what they are doing under the tents or what I call the 'Borat campaign', but Vučić should not be underestimated.

Biljana Đorđević, co-president of the Green-Left Front, echoed Ponoš's sentiment, stating that the opposition public must not become complacent, believing the outcome is already decided. She argued that even though the current regime may have lost social legitimacy, it still possesses the means to retain power through deceptive practices. Both opposition figures highlighted the critical need for collaboration and communication among all opposition actors in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

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That this regime has lost social legitimacy does not mean that it does not have all the mechanisms and levers that it can retain by deception.

Ponoš expressed confidence in cooperation on technical matters and mutual non-aggression among opposition groups. He also hoped that emerging student movements aiming to participate in elections would not attack established opposition parties. Regarding the timing of elections, Đorđević suggested that parliamentary elections are more likely to occur before presidential ones. This scenario, she explained, stems from the Serbian Progressive Party's (SNS) difficulty in finding a presidential candidate, making Vučić a potentially stronger candidate for prime minister.

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I am convinced that even if elections were held tomorrow, we would cooperate on all technical matters. I am convinced that mutual non-aggression is a given. And I hope that in the student movement, when it is formed in a way that it is a movement that goes to elections, there will be no appetite to attack the opposition.

Đorđević noted that the SNS and Vučić are being forced to take risks, a departure from their usual strategy of only contesting elections when victory seemed assured. While acknowledging the continued use of vote-buying, pressure, and blackmail, she believes the ruling party is now compelled to gamble. Ponoš concurred with this assessment, speculating that Vučić might believe his coalition has a better chance of winning parliamentary elections first, from which position he could then support a less favored presidential candidate.

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That scenario sounds realistic from the perspective of the problem the Serbian Progressive Party is in, which is that they don't have a presidential candidate. And it seems to me that Vučić stands better as a candidate for prime minister.