Should Sweden form a grand coalition between Social Democrats and Moderates after the election?

Sweden's political landscape may necessitate an unconventional alliance after the next election, according to political scientist Leif Lewin. He posits that neither the left nor the right bloc is likely to command a majority in the prime ministerial vote, forcing parties to seek compromise.

Lewin highlights the challenge posed by the Vänsterpartiet's potential role in a left-wing government, creating uncertainty. On the right, a minority position seems probable. This electoral arithmetic, he argues, means that parties' second-choice preferences will ultimately determine the government's formation.

He criticizes the public's perception of politicians shifting stances between election campaigns and post-election negotiations. Lewin explains this is not cynicism but a feature of Sweden's "cooperative democracy," which differs from textbook majority rule. In this system, modifying positions to form voting majorities is essential.

The article delves into two models of coalition building: 'swing-voting' and 'contractual parliamentarism.' The former involves a central figure brokering agreements, reminiscent of historical figures like C.G. Ekman, though criticized for potential instability. The latter, exemplified by the 1930s Social Democrat-Bondeförbundet pact and the recent Tidö agreement, involves longer-term, broader pacts, which also face criticism for potentially undermining parliamentary representation.