Signs point to potential Russian mobilization after elections, experts say

Speculation is mounting that Russian authorities may initiate a new mobilization after the autumn parliamentary elections, aiming to recruit a large number of soldiers to alter the course of the war in Ukraine. While the possibility cannot be entirely dismissed, experts are closely watching for concrete indicators.

Elizabete Vizgunova-Vikmane, a researcher at the Latvian Institute of Foreign Affairs, stated that any decision to mobilize would signal "very ambitious plans" from the Kremlin to both Europe and Ukraine. However, she cautioned that distinguishing reliable information from propaganda in the current information space is challenging.

Major Jānis Slaidiņš of the Zemessardze headquarters outlined several actions that suggest Russia is preparing for such a step. He noted that Russia's Rosgvardiya (National Guard) has reportedly restructured its operational mechanisms for a potential mobilization. Furthermore, legislative changes have been made to facilitate electronic summons and restrict citizens from leaving the country, clearing the path for mobilization.

Slaidiņš also pointed to unusual calls for medical personnel to report to military commissariats, which he stated is not typical. He emphasized that a critical indicator to watch in August would be a large-scale blood donor campaign. "If that happens, then it's 100% mobilization," he asserted, adding that while he cannot definitively confirm mobilization is planned, the current facts indicate significant preparatory steps have been taken.