Six Consequences Six Months After War in Iran

Six months after the United States and Israel initiated attacks on Iran, the conflict, initially described by President Donald Trump as a "small excursion," has become a significant political liability, threatening his presidency. Contrary to initial expectations of a swift resolution within four weeks, Iran has not capitulated. Maritime traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and a clear endgame for the conflict is absent.

Domestically, the war has taken a political toll on Trump. His approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, with rising gas prices undermining his campaign promise to lower costs for Americans. Despite his administration's justification of the action due to Iran's missile buildup and nuclear ambitions, a majority of voters, only 31%, approve of the conflict. This low approval contrasts with earlier US conflicts and poses a challenge for the Republican party ahead of the November elections.

Globally, the attacks triggered alarms due to the Strait of Hormuz's role in carrying approximately one-fifth of the world's energy supplies. While the disruption to shipping caused oil prices to surge and fueled fears of a global downturn, the economic impact has been less severe than initially feared by many economists. The International Monetary Fund has revised its global growth forecast downward twice since the war's inception, now expecting 3.0% growth for the year, down from 3.3%. However, the global economy has demonstrated resilience, partly due to reduced energy intensity in major economies and robust consumer spending, including the ongoing artificial intelligence boom.

Despite significant damage to its military and economy, Iran has proven resilient. Tehran continues to demonstrate its capacity to launch attacks and maintain a disruptive presence in the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the lack of progress through military means, the US is shifting back to a strategy of economic pressure, aiming to further weaken the Iranian government. Secretary of State Marko Rubio has indicated to allies that new US attacks are unlikely "for now," leaving the future course of the conflict uncertain.