Small parties hold the key to blocking an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt

The small parties could determine whether the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, reaches an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt’s regional election this Sunday. The Social Democratic Party, or SPD, and the Greens must each clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament and help prevent that outcome.

The AfD leads every poll by a wide margin, with support around 40%. It holds a lead of between 17 and 20 points over the Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and regionally by Minister-President Sven Schulze.

The election result itself is widely expected to favor the AfD. The harder question is whether other parties can form an alliance to keep it out of regional government, which would otherwise happen for the first time in the state’s history. Schulze currently governs in a coalition with the SPD and the Free Democratic Party, although polls give the FDP little chance of returning to parliament.

If the Greens enter the legislature, Schulze would need to add them to a CDU-SPD alliance. Even under the most favorable projections, however, those three parties would not hold a majority. The Left, which could win about 11%, could therefore become the decisive force.

The CDU has ruled out a coalition with the Left, but informal cooperation has not been entirely excluded. Left leader Eva von Angern said there had been limited cooperation in recent decades and that there was room for talks after the September 6 election. She also cited a Rosa Luxemburg Foundation study indicating that most Left members favor cooperation with the CDU to block the AfD. Such an arrangement would put the CDU in conflict with a 2018 party congress resolution rejecting agreements with both the AfD and the Left.

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In recent decades there has been occasional cooperation and a space in which talks are possible. That is why I trust there will be discussions after September 6.