Soldier accused of using war secrets for betting profits

Online prediction markets have become a new frontier for war profiteering, with over a billion dollars wagered globally on military decisions and outcomes this year alone. This phenomenon has created a novel category of insider trading, where bets are placed on specific attack timings and even the fates of world leaders.

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If the allegations are true, this is one of the worst betrayals of trust in this area that I can remember and possibly ever.

The U.S. military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, led to federal charges not only for the president but also for U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke. Van Dyke, who was involved in planning the mission, is accused of using classified intelligence to place bets on the raid's timing.

According to the Justice Department, Van Dyke made wagers totaling approximately $34,000, including several the day before the raid. He allegedly profited over $400,000, withdrew the funds, and then attempted to delete his betting account on Polymarket, the world's largest online prediction market. The 38-year-old master sergeant has pleaded not guilty.

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Classified intelligence that he knew about because he helped plan and to execute the mission. There is nothing to compare that to.

Rob Schwartz, a former official at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, described the situation as a "betrayal of trust." He explained that trading on non-public business information is considered insider trading in corporate contexts, and the same principle applies to prediction markets, even if the context differs from typical insider dealings. "There is nothing to compare that to," Schwartz stated regarding the soldier's alleged actions.

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If you are a corporate executive, and you're privy to non public-- business information, you go trade on that, that's insider trading. Everybody knows that. But the same thing exists in prediction markets, where this soldier is alleged to have traded.