South Korea Faces Hotter Summer with Increased Rainfall Expected

As we head into summer, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts a warmer-than-average season, with a higher probability of increased rainfall, particularly in June and July. This outlook is based on a complex interplay of global climate factors, including elevated sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and North Indian Oceans, which are expected to strengthen anticyclonic circulation over East Asia.

These oceanic temperature anomalies are significant drivers of our regional weather patterns. The warmer waters fuel the atmospheric systems that bring hot and humid air to the Korean Peninsula. While the KMA notes that a cooler sea surface temperature in the western tropical Pacific might slightly temper the heat in August, the overall trend points towards a summer that will likely feel hotter than usual compared to the 1991-2020 baseline.

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It is difficult to say how this summer's weather will compare to a specific year that showed extreme values, as various climate factors can have an influence. We can only compare it to the average.

While the number of typhoons is predicted to be around the average, the increased precipitation forecast for early summer raises concerns about potential localized flooding. The KMA also highlights the ongoing trend of warming temperatures and rising sea levels around the Korean Peninsula, driven by climate change. This long-term warming trend is evident in the significant increase in average monthly temperatures over the past decades, particularly in recent years. Understanding these trends is crucial for preparing our communities for the impacts of a changing climate.

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The North Pacific High tends to expand northward rather than westward (towards Korea). There is little possibility of it expanding directly towards Korea this summer.