South Korea Faces Widespread Subtropical Shift by Late Century

Most of South Korea could transition to a subtropical climate by the late 21st century, according to an analysis by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). This shift is contingent on the world's failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The only region expected to remain temperate is the Gangwon 영서 area, typically the coolest part of the country.

Currently, South Korea is largely considered to have a temperate climate, with only Jeju Island and parts of the southern coast classified as subtropical. However, climate change is driving a northward expansion of these warmer conditions. The KMA's analysis, using data from 66 observation points across the country, applied the 'Trewartha climate classification.' This system defines subtropical climates as areas where the average temperature of the coldest month is below 18 degrees Celsius (but above freezing) and at least eight months have an average monthly temperature of 10 degrees Celsius or higher.

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We need to consider with caution the fact that the KMA applied the high-carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), which the international scientific community is in the process of discarding.

While 80% of the 66 locations met temperate criteria based on a 30-year average, 14 locations, including all of Jeju and several southern coastal cities, were classified as subtropical. However, when analyzing data in 10-year increments to reflect accelerating temperature increases, the number of subtropical areas rose to 17. Recent years have seen inland cities like Gwangju and coastal areas like Uljin and Gangneung meet the criteria, indicating a clear northward creep of subtropical conditions.

March temperatures are becoming increasingly significant in this classification, showing the steepest rise in average monthly temperature over the past 53 years. While previously only Jeju and Busan experienced March average temperatures above 10 degrees Celsius, several inland cities are now approaching this threshold. Projections for the late 21st century under a high-carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5) show most of the country, excluding Gangwon 영서, becoming subtropical. However, some experts express concern that such extreme scenarios may induce unnecessary fear and discourage climate action, advocating for more nuanced and realistic projections.

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The analysis results derived from overly rapid scenarios can make people feel there is no solution, potentially leading them to give up on any response efforts.