South Korea's 2040 electricity demand to surge by 27 GW, driving nuclear power consideration

South Korea's projected electricity demand for 2040 has surged by approximately 27 gigawatts (GW), a figure equivalent to the output of 19 modern nuclear reactors. This significant increase, reflected in the 12th Basic Electricity Supply and Demand Plan (2026-2040), is largely attributed to the government's "3 major mega-projects" announced in June. The government is now considering extending the operational life of nine nuclear reactors nearing the end of their lifespan by 2030 to manage this escalating demand.

During a public hearing on the 12th Basic Electricity Supply and Demand Plan held on May 20th, Choi Yong-ok, chair of the demand planning subcommittee, stated that the projected electricity demand for 2040 is between 158.4 and 165.0 GW, with annual electricity consumption estimated at 847.3 to 885.1 terawatt-hours (TWh). These figures represent an increase of 26.6 to 26.8 GW compared to projections made in April. The semiconductor industry alone accounts for a substantial portion of this increase, with an additional 20.6 GW demand, while data centers contribute an extra 7.9 GW. Demand-side management measures are expected to reduce overall demand by 2.7 GW.

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The projected electricity demand for 2040 is between 158.4 and 165.0 GW, with annual electricity consumption estimated at 847.3 to 885.1 TWh.

Park Woo-young, head of the Energy Transition Policy Research at the Korea Energy Economics Institute, presented a roadmap for an appropriate "electricity mix." He highlighted that the additional electricity demand by 2041 due to the mega-projects, including 18.4 GW for AI data centers and 20 GW for semiconductors, totals 38.4 GW. This is equivalent to 27 new nuclear reactors. Park emphasized the challenge of supplying this large amount of power with carbon-free sources over the next 10 to 15 years.

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The additional electricity demand by 2041 due to the mega-projects, including 18.4 GW for AI data centers and 20 GW for semiconductors, totals 38.4 GW.

Extending the lifespan of existing nuclear reactors emerged as the most "cost-effective and rapid" solution. The proposal includes extending the operation of nine reactors by 2030 and constructing two new ones. Nuclear power was evaluated favorably across criteria such as timeliness, site availability, and grid contribution, making it the preferred option for "cost-effective and rapid carbon-free power supply."

Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan has previously expressed a positive stance on extending nuclear reactor lifespans, stating it is necessary if safety is guaranteed. Similarly, Rep. Na Kyung-won of the People Power Party proposed extending the operational period of nuclear reactors from 10 to 20 years, receiving a positive response from the ministry. Nuclear power is slated to be a major energy source in subsequent phases of the plan as well.

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Extending the operational life of nuclear reactors is the most cost-effective and rapid carbon-free power supply option.

However, environmental groups have raised concerns. Park Hang-ju, a specialist at Green Korea United, criticized the plan to extend the life of all nuclear power plants as "lazy and irresponsible." He suggested that reducing unnecessary data center construction and strengthening demand management could significantly decrease electricity demand, potentially allowing for fewer reactor life extensions. Kim Byung-kwon, director of the Green Transition Institute, warned that the surge in electricity demand must not jeopardize the nation's greenhouse gas reduction targets, which aim for a 44.4% cut in the power sector by 2030.

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Extending the lifespan of all nuclear power plants nearing their end is too lazy and irresponsible.