South Korean parties predict close races in key mayoral elections

With just one day left before early voting for the June 3 local elections, South Korea's two major political parties have outlined their expectations for the 16 mayoral races across the country. The Democratic Party anticipates winning nine regions, while the People Power Party expects to secure two, with both parties identifying Seoul, Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam as common battlegrounds.

Jo Seung-rae, the Democratic Party's chief election strategist, confirmed on May 28 that their assessment of six contested regions and one 'at-risk' region remains unchanged. The party considers Incheon, Gyeonggi, Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Jeju as areas where they hold an advantage. In contrast, Jung Hee-yong, the People Power Party's election headquarters chief, stated their party expects to win in two regions, identified as Daegu and Gyeongbuk, with seven regions, including Seoul, Gangwon, Daejeon, Chungnam, Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, considered competitive. This leaves Incheon, Gyeonggi, Sejong, Jeonbuk, Jeju, Chungbuk, and Jeonnam/Gwangju as areas where the People Power Party anticipates a disadvantage.

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Ultimately, winning Seoul and Busan is the most important.

The parties differ on their predictions for Daejeon, Chungnam, and Gangwon, which the Democratic Party views as advantageous but the People Power Party sees as contested. Conversely, the People Power Party considers Daegu a safe seat, while the Democratic Party lists it as contested.

Both parties have been hesitant to set specific victory targets, emphasizing their goal to win as many seats as possible. However, a consensus exists that the results in Seoul and Busan will be pivotal in deciding the overall election outcome. A senior Democratic Party official noted the critical importance of winning in Seoul and Busan, while a People Power Party lawmaker commented that winning only in the Yeongnam region would be considered merely 'holding the line.'

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If we only win in Yeongnam, it will only be considered 'holding the line'.