Southern Europe burns, but global fires hit record low: A paradox

Southern Europe is currently battling severe wildfires, with countries like Spain and France facing their largest blazes on record and tens of thousands evacuated. Greece, too, has seen over 50 new wildfires break out recently. These extreme events seem to paint a grim picture of escalating fire danger.

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Both are true.

However, data from the EU's Copernicus climate monitoring service reveals a seemingly paradoxical trend: while fires rage across parts of Europe and North America, global fire activity has reached its lowest point since measurements began. This decline is primarily driven by a reduction in fires in tropical savannas and grasslands, often linked to decreased agricultural burning practices after the rainy season in Africa and Asia.

This global decrease contrasts sharply with the situation in higher latitudes. Studies indicate a growing trend of forest fires and extreme wildfires in forested areas and at northern latitudes. Canada, for instance, has experienced its most extreme years in terms of wildfire emissions within the last four years. Some of the most severe fires in recent times have occurred in regions historically less prone to them, including arctic parts of Eurasia.

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It seems like a paradox since we are talking about an increase in fires, while global figures have been steadily decreasing.

Climate change is a significant factor exacerbating fire conditions. In France, human-induced climate change has doubled the likelihood of fire-prone weather, such as repeated heatwaves and extreme drought. In Spain, this likelihood has increased twentyfold. While the overall global numbers may be declining due to fewer tropical fires, the intensity and frequency of fires in regions like Europe and Canada highlight the ongoing and localized impacts of a warming planet.

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More studies point to increasing trends for forest fires and extreme natural fires in forest areas and at northern latitudes.