Stable US-China ties unlikely to last, says former NSC director Evan Medeiros

Recent summits between the United States and China primarily serve to reaffirm existing power dynamics rather than alter them, according to Dr. Evan Medeiros, a former director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the National Security Council.

Medeiros, who advised former President Barack Obama on Asia-Pacific affairs, stated that summits tend to "reaffirm the underlying power dynamics more than change them." He described the recent meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping as a "classic case of both sides using a summit to affirm current dynamics rather than change them."

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These summits tend to reaffirm the underlying power dynamics more than change them.

The summit reflected a strategically focused China that successfully set the agenda and secured a significant framing concession, referred to as G2-ish. In contrast, the US delegation focused on securing trade deals, obtaining only soft commitments on purchases that could have been prearranged.

Medeiros's assessment suggests that while such meetings may offer temporary engagement, they do not fundamentally shift the balance of power or alter the trajectory of US-China relations, implying that stable ties may be short-lived.

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This US-China summit did far more to reflect – not change – the existing power dynamics: a confident, strategically focused China that set the agenda and extracted a valuable framing concession (G2-ish); and a US side that came for trade deals, got soft commitments on purchases that should have been prearranged.