Starship Explosion in Orbit Could Create More Debris Than an Anti-Satellite Test

SpaceX’s first attempt to send Starship into orbit carries a risk that experts say deserves attention beyond the fate of the rocket itself: an explosion could create an unusually large cloud of space debris.

The Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster are expected to fly later this month on the launch system’s 14th test flight. It would also be the system’s first orbital test flight.

Moriba Jah, a professor of aerospace engineering at The University of Texas at Austin, said an explosion involving Starship’s upper stage could generate more debris than previous in-orbit incidents. He compared the potential event with Russia’s November 2021 anti-satellite test, which intentionally destroyed the defunct Soviet intelligence satellite Cosmos-1408.

Jah said that test had harmful consequences for the operation of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation. A Starship explosion in low-Earth orbit, he said, could create hazards for other objects and for humans. “If something like that happened in low-Earth orbit, it would be like the Russian anti-satellite test, but probably a few scales larger in terms of the amount of debris it would generate,” Jah said.

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If something like that happened in low-Earth orbit, it would be like the Russian anti-satellite test, but probably a few scales larger in terms of the amount of debris it would generate.