State election: SPD narrows gap with AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll

The SPD has cut into the AfD’s lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, but the far-right party remains well ahead weeks before the state election.

An Forsa poll for the Ostsee-Zeitung gives the AfD 37%, compared with 28% for the SPD led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. The Social Democrats gained five percentage points from the previous Forsa survey in February.

The Left Party, which currently governs with the SPD, ranks third at 11%. It has overtaken the CDU, which lost three points and stands at 10%. The Greens sit exactly at the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is at 4%. Forsa placed the Free Democrats among the other parties.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern votes on Sept. 20. The SPD has governed the state with changing coalition partners since 1998, and Schwesig has led a coalition with the Left since the 2021 election. That year, the SPD won nearly 40% and kept the AfD far behind.

The latest figures leave several coalition combinations mathematically possible. An SPD, Left and Greens alliance could secure a narrow majority, while a CDU, SPD and Left coalition would have a stable majority. The CDU, however, maintains a formal ban on cooperation with the Left. A CDU-AfD alliance is also theoretically possible, but the CDU has ruled it out. The AfD says it is seeking to govern alone, an outcome that recent polling suggests could be close.