State Police not the answer to Nigeria's security crisis, analysis argues

The Tinubu administration's renewed push for State Police has reignited a critical public policy debate in Nigeria, addressing the widespread reality of a failing security architecture. Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, and organized crime have overwhelmed the capacity of a centrally controlled police force to protect over 230 million people.

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79 percent of Nigerians consider kidnapping and abduction a serious national problem; 33 percent personally know someone who has been kidnapped within the last five years; and 63 percent say they or a family member felt unsafe in their home or neighbourhood during the previous year.

Recent Afrobarometer findings reveal that 79 percent of Nigerians view kidnapping as a serious problem, with 33 percent personally knowing someone abducted in the last five years. Furthermore, 63 percent felt unsafe at home or in their neighborhood. These statistics highlight a profound crisis in state effectiveness and citizen confidence, making State Police appear to be a logical solution for many.

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For many citizens, therefore, State Police appears to be an obvious and long overdue solution.

However, the article argues that while State Police may be necessary, it is not sufficient. The current security crisis is not fundamentally a policing issue but a manifestation of deeper constitutional, governance, and political economy problems that have eroded state capacity and accountability.

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Yet the fact that State Police is necessary does not mean it is sufficient.

The central debate should not be about governors controlling police forces, but whether Nigeria's constitutional framework is still fit for purpose. The country's insecurity is inseparable from its dysfunctional federal arrangement, characterized by an over-concentration of authority, fiscal resources, and political power at the center. This over-centralization, evident in the legislative lists of the 1999 Constitution, heavily favors the federal government.

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The security crisis is real, but it is not fundamentally a policing crisis. It is the manifestation of a deeper constitutional, governance and political economy crisis that has steadily eroded state capacity, weakened accountability and undermined the effectiveness of public institutions.