Strait of Hormuz Mine Clearance Could Take Weeks, Delaying Oil Shipments

Ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is free of mines could prolong the disruption to normal shipping traffic by several weeks, according to maritime security sources. The extensive operation, involving conventional minesweepers and advanced underwater drones, is estimated to take between 40 and 50 days before insurance and shipping companies feel confident enough to resume passage.

This potential delay comes at a critical time for global energy supplies. Tens of millions of barrels of oil could be held up, adding to existing shortages caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran. Global stockpiles are reportedly heading toward their lowest levels since at least 2003, making every export barrel from the Gulf region crucial.

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We still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point. The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line and mine-free routes need to be established.

Even though Iran and the U.S. have recently facilitated some ship movements through the waterway, shipping officials are advising continued caution. The preliminary agreement reached by the U.S. and Iran to end their war and reopen the strait has not entirely allayed fears. "We still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety & security officer at shipping association BIMCO. "The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line and mine-free routes need to be established."

The exact number of mines Iran may have deployed in the strait, which handled 20% of the world's daily oil and liquefied natural gas supply before the war, remains unclear. Iran has previously threatened to deploy naval mines, though it has not confirmed planting them. The U.S. has indicated mines are a risk and claims to have targeted Iranian mine-laying vessels. Germany's navy, citing U.S. and British intelligence, reported mines in four locations, though verification was not possible. The mere possibility of mines deters companies, as a single sea mine can cause fatalities and significant financial losses, estimated at around $300 million per supertanker and its cargo.

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One sea mine is enough to have fatalities. That's obviously a massive issue for global shipping.