Strait of Hormuz set to reopen Friday after four-month closure

The critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane is poised to reopen on Friday, marking the end of a nearly four-month closure following a US-Iran agreement to cease hostilities. The reopening, however, is expected to be a gradual process, with a return to normal traffic volumes and pre-war crude export levels likely taking several months.

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performed regular onboard drills and maintained the ships' machinery, technical installations and equipment

Around 500 ships and 20,000 seafarers have been stranded in Gulf waters since Iran effectively closed the strait after it came under fire from the United States and Israel. While ships could theoretically begin moving through the strait almost immediately upon formal approval, some may require underwater hull cleaning due to marine growth accumulated during the shutdown. Jakob Larsen, head of security at shipowners' association Bimco, noted that crews would likely have maintained ships' machinery during the idle period.

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shipowners who operate their own fleet and those not listed on a stock exchange

Navigating the strait may proceed cautiously, with insurers potentially requiring naval escorts. Hugo Rousse of maritime tracking group AXSMarine suggested that shipowners operating their own fleets and those not listed on stock exchanges might be among the first to cross. Tankers linked to Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are anticipated to be among the initial vessels to resume transits.

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Given the elevated earnings still prevalent in the tanker sector, higher war risk insurance is unlikely to be an obstacle.

Challenges remain, including Iran designating a central area of the strait as a mine danger zone. Until mines are cleared, ships may have to rely on coastal traffic zones, which are not ideal for normal traffic volumes. France, Britain, and the United States have mobilized mine-clearing capabilities to address this issue. Beyond mine clearance, a full return to normalcy requires crew changes, restarting disrupted supply chains, and replenishing strategic energy reserves. Analysts estimate it could take four to six months for crude export volumes to return to pre-war levels, with Rousse stating, "Not everything will go back to normal with the snap of a finger."

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ships can use the coastal traffic zones which are mine-free but which are not well-suited to accommodate normal volumes of maritime traffic