Strait of Hormuz should not reopen on Tehran’s terms - opinion

The security of the Strait of Hormuz is paramount, not just for regional stability but for the very arteries of the global economy. As outlined in this analysis, the United States faces a critical juncture: how it facilitates the reopening of this vital waterway will determine whether it represents a strategic victory or a profound defeat. The core issue is not merely Iran's threat to maritime traffic, but the regime's consistent pattern of using pressure as leverage, only to preserve its coercive tools through diplomacy.

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If shipping resumes through diplomatic channels while the Islamic Republic, or a regime insider repackaged as an alternative, retains the power to close the strait again, the United States will not have restored deterrence.

This pattern is not theoretical; it is deeply rooted in the Islamic Republic's documented history of concealment and selective cooperation, as evidenced by IAEA reports on Iran's secret nuclear activities. Trusting such a regime to guarantee stability in a critical global chokepoint is a dangerous gamble. The analysis rightly points out that a temporary reopening achieved through talks, while the current regime remains in power, would embolden Tehran, teaching it that it can create crises and then return to negotiations without relinquishing the means to cause future disruptions.

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It uses diplomacy to preserve them under more favorable conditions.

The economic implications are staggering. With the Strait of Hormuz handling approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily – over a quarter of global seaborne oil trade – and a significant portion of global LNG trade, its disruption has immediate and far-reaching consequences for energy markets and allied governments. Therefore, any solution must address the fundamental issue of deterrence. A successful reopening, as argued, can only be achieved through decisive military action that leads to the regime's complete defeat and surrender, or ideally, its replacement. Anything less risks validating Tehran's strategy and undermining global economic security.

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A regime with a record of concealment, selective cooperation, and delay should not be treated as a reliable guarantor of stability in one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.