Strong El Niño Expected This Fall, Raising South Korea’s Winter Temperatures

A strong El Niño is expected to develop this fall, pointing to a warmer winter on the Korean Peninsula.

The Korea Meteorological Administration said the El Niño now under way is likely to intensify in autumn and persist until February next year. Strong El Niño events have typically brought higher winter temperatures and more precipitation to the peninsula.

The agency reached its forecast after analyzing the World Meteorological Organization’s El Niño-La Niña update. From July 23 to 29, sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 monitoring region stood 2.6 degrees Celsius above average.

The monthly anomaly also continued to grow, rising from 0.8 degrees in May to 1.4 degrees in June and 1.7 degrees in July. Water temperatures 50 to 250 meters below the surface in the eastern equatorial Pacific were also above normal.

Atmospheric conditions supported further strengthening. Convection increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while westerly wind anomalies appeared about 1.5 kilometers above the surface. El Niño occurs when weakened trade winds allow warm water that has gathered in the western Pacific to move eastward.