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Strong warning issued against popular game: 'Sky-high risk'
🇳🇴 Norway /Crime & Justice

Strong warning issued against popular game: 'Sky-high risk'

From Aftenposten · () Norwegian

Translated from Norwegian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Norway's Lottery Directorate is evaluating whether the prediction game Polymarket constitutes illegal gambling, citing high risks for consumers.
  • Polymarket allows users to bet on outcomes in politics, economy, sports, and war, with trades occurring between users rather than with the platform itself.
  • Concerns include potential for insider trading and manipulation, as a small percentage of players reportedly capture a large majority of the profits, suggesting a system favoring those with inside information.

Norway's Lottery Directorate is closely examining the prediction market platform Polymarket, with the possibility of it being banned from the Norwegian market looming. Director Atle Hamar has issued a strong warning, labeling the platform a potential "consumer trap" due to its "sky-high risk" of financial loss for users.

It exists a system where you enter into a bet that can resemble an odds bet, but where the outcome is not random.

— Atle HamarExplaining the nature of Polymarket's betting system.

Hamar explained that statistics indicate a highly skewed distribution of winnings, with approximately one percent of players securing around 67 percent of the profits. He characterized Polymarket's betting system as one where outcomes are not random, significantly increasing the chances of winning for those possessing specific information. This structure, he argues, explains why so few participants actually profit.

Polymarket gained significant attention in Norway after María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. The platform saw a surge in bets on Machado winning in the hours before the announcement, sparking speculation about potential espionage, data breaches, or leaks.

This means that this is a system where you enter into a bet that can resemble an odds bet, but where the outcome is not random.

— Atle HamarFurther clarifying the non-random nature of Polymarket outcomes.

The platform enables users to wager on a wide array of events, including political developments, economic trends, sporting outcomes, and even wartime actions. Unlike traditional bookmakers, Polymarket facilitates trades directly between users, with the platform not acting as the counterparty. Hamar expressed strong concerns that such a system is "tailor-made for insider trading and corruption," citing examples where individuals with non-public information about military actions or weather forecasts have secured substantial gains.

It is tailor-made for insider trading and corruption.

— Atle HamarExpressing concerns about the potential for illicit activities on the platform.

Concerns have also been raised about Norwegian youth becoming addicted to Polymarket. Hamar urged parents to monitor their children's activities on the platform, emphasizing the high probability of losing money regardless of the bet. The platform's inclusion of bets on war actions has drawn significant criticism, and while established in the US six years ago and linked to figures like Donald Trump Jr., its operations have been deemed illegal by gaming authorities in Nevada.

Follow this. Because money is being spent on a platform where the risk of losing money is sky-high, almost regardless.

— Atle HamarWarning parents about the risks associated with Polymarket for young users.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Aftenposten in Norwegian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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