Stronger El Niño Points to a Warmer, Wetter Korean Winter

This winter in the Korean Peninsula is likely to be warmer and wetter than usual as the El Niño now developing is expected to strengthen.

The Korea Meteorological Administration said on the 3rd that it reached this outlook after analyzing the World Meteorological Organization’s latest El Niño and La Niña update. The agency expects the event to grow stronger this autumn and continue through February next year.

When El Niño intensifies, winter temperatures on the Korean Peninsula have generally risen and precipitation has increased. The phenomenon occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific remain above normal for several months or longer.

Conditions have continued to strengthen. From July 23 to 29, sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 monitoring region stood 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal. The monthly anomaly rose from 0.8 degrees in May to 1.4 degrees in June and 1.7 degrees in July.

Subsurface waters 50 to 250 meters deep in the equatorial eastern Pacific were also warmer than normal. Active convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, along with westerly wind anomalies about 1.5 kilometers above the surface, provided further atmospheric signs of strengthening El Niño conditions.