Study: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern faces moderate rise in care needs, not a 'tsunami'

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will not face a "care tsunami" as previously feared, according to new research. Professor Thomas Klie of Interdisciplinary Care Research GmbH presented findings indicating a moderate rise in care needs by 2040, a significant shift from earlier projections based on the 2011 microcensus.

The study, commissioned by the Schwerin Health Ministry, now forecasts a 7.6 percent increase in care-dependent individuals by 2040 compared to 2023. This revised outlook stems from updated population forecasts that show a lower overall population for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern than previously estimated. Klie's research suggests fewer elderly individuals will mean fewer people requiring care in the future.

Despite the eased projections for care demand, the region faces a critical shortage of care workers. Health Minister Stefanie Drese (SPD) stated that the number of nursing home beds, currently around 21,000, does not need to increase. However, she highlighted the difficulty in maintaining this number due to the ongoing lack of staff, noting that some existing care positions are already unfilled.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has a comprehensive network of outpatient services and stationary facilities. Yet, the personnel shortage extends to outpatient care services as well. The study also points out that the proportion of care-dependent individuals in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is already above the national average.