Sudan: Fears of atrocities as RSF surrounds key city

The strategically important city of el-Obeid in North Kordofan is on the brink of becoming the next major battlefront in Sudan's ongoing conflict, with international bodies issuing stark warnings. The UN Security Council, alongside several European countries and the United States, has flagged the "imminent risk of mass atrocities" as Rapid Support Forces (RSF) troops encircle the city.

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The next major front line in Sudan's war is most likely the strategically important city of el-Obeid in North Kordofan.

Analysts believe the RSF is preparing a ground offensive to seize el-Obeid, which has been under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since February 2025. The war, which erupted in April 2023 from a rift between SAF leader Abdel-Fattah Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, has fractured the country. The SAF controls territories in the north and center, including the capital Khartoum, while the RSF dominates western Darfur and parts of the south.

Sudan, a nation rich in resources, is now grappling with the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crisis. The UN reports over 14 million people displaced internally and in neighboring countries, with estimated death tolls ranging from 40,000 to 250,000. El-Obeid, with a population of around 500,000, is a critical crossroads connecting central Sudan, Khartoum, and Darfur. Its capture would grant significant control over troop movements and supply lines, in addition to its existing military base and airfield.

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we must not allow the horrors of el-Fasher to be repeated in el-Obeid.

Hager Ali, a researcher at the GIGA Institute for Global and Area Studies, told DW that el-Obeid has historically served as a vital logistical hub. "If the RSF managed to retake el-Obeid, they would not only profit from its urban infrastructure and lucrative gum arabic trade but they could also use the city as a strategic forward operating base for launching drones," she explained. Drones have become a crucial weapon in the conflict, though their effectiveness can be hampered by the rainy season, which begins in July. Capturing el-Obeid could provide the RSF with a closer base for operations, mitigating these challenges.

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El-Obeid has been an important logistical hub for supply lines throughout its entire history.

Echoing concerns about escalating violence, a spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned, "we must not allow the horrors of el-Fasher to be repeated in el-Obeid." This statement directly references the devastating events in el-Fasher, highlighting fears that el-Obeid could face similar widespread atrocities.

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If the RSF managed to retake el-Obeid, they would not only profit from its urban infrastructure and lucrative gum arabic trade but they could also use the city as a strategic forward operating base for launching drones.