Super El Niño Doubles Chance of Record-Hot Year

The likelihood of 2024 surpassing 2023 as the hottest year on record has significantly increased, now estimated at 35%, up from 19% just four months ago. This heightened probability is attributed to the powerful 'super El Niño' phenomenon currently underway, which is rapidly warming Pacific Ocean temperatures.

The British climate research group Carbon Brief's updated 'Climate Outlook' highlights that the current El Niño event is intensifying at a historically fast pace. The 'Niño 3.4' region in the Pacific, a key indicator, has seen its temperature anomaly climb rapidly since April. This rapid escalation suggests the current El Niño could become one of the strongest ever recorded, potentially reaching a 3.59-degree Celsius anomaly between July and December.

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The probability that global temperatures will rise to the highest level on record in 2026 has doubled to 35%.

This intense warming trend is already manifesting globally. June saw record-breaking high temperatures in many regions, with nearly 9% of the Earth's surface experiencing its highest June temperature. Global sea surface temperatures have also hit new highs, and Arctic sea ice extent continues to shrink.

While Carbon Brief maintains that 2024 might still be the hottest year with a projected 1.51-degree Celsius rise above pre-industrial levels, the full impact of the El Niño is expected to be felt in 2025. Projections indicate that next year could be even hotter, potentially exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius limit set by global climate agreements, making it a critical year for climate action.

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The current El Niño is intensifying at the fastest rate ever recorded.