Super El Niño Possible This Fall, Raising Global Heatwave and Flood Alerts

The United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared the onset of an El Niño event, signaling a significant shift in global weather patterns. The agency issued an "El Niño Watch," indicating that conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean now meet the criteria for the phenomenon, defined by sea surface temperatures remaining at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for over five months.

NOAA forecasts suggest this El Niño is likely to intensify into a 'moderate' or 'strong' event by autumn, with a 63% probability of escalating into a 'very strong' or 'super El Niño.' Such powerful El Niño events, like those in 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24, have historically been associated with record-breaking heatwaves, torrential rainfall, and other extreme weather disasters across the globe.

El Niño typically develops during the summer and peaks in intensity during the winter. In the United States, this can translate to more frequent storms in the southern regions and drier, warmer conditions in the north. Crucially, the peak in winter means its effects on global temperatures are often most pronounced in the following year, leading experts to predict that 2027 could see record-breaking global temperatures.

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The average global temperature is rising, meaning the overall energy level globally is increasing. This will lead to changes in various climate elements such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans, vegetation, and land.

While the direct impact of El Niño on South Korea's climate remains uncertain, with meteorological authorities generally seeing a weak correlation, its global influence cannot be ignored. Experts note that a rise in global average temperature signifies increased energy in the Earth's systems, inevitably leading to changes in various climate components like the atmosphere, oceans, and land. A strong El Niño could therefore indirectly affect South Korea's weather patterns.

Former Director of the National Meteorological Science Institute, Jo Cheon-ho, suggested that during the winter of an El Niño year, South Korea might experience warmer temperatures and increased rainfall due to moist air from the south. The following summer could see cooler temperatures and concentrated heavy rainfall, particularly in the southern regions, as the North Pacific high-pressure system shifts southwestward.

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During the winter of the year El Niño occurs, temperatures nationwide tend to be warmer than average, and precipitation increases significantly due to moist air flowing in from the south. In the following summer, the North Pacific high-pressure system shifts southwestward, activating stationary fronts and potentially causing temperatures to drop and concentrated heavy rainfall, especially in the southern regions.