Swedish election race tightens as right-wing bloc gains momentum

Sweden's political landscape is tightening less than three weeks before the election, with the latest DN/Ipsos poll showing a narrowing gap between the right-wing bloc and the opposition. The right-wing parties have gained some momentum, though a historic comeback is still needed for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's government to continue.

The distance between the blocs has reduced to 6.8 percentage points, down from 9.5 in June. This shift is attributed to minor changes within individual parties, making the figures subject to margins of error. However, Ipsos analyst Nicklas Källebring notes a slight tailwind for the governing parties.

Liberalerna (L) has achieved its highest support rating since publicly agreeing to allow Sweden Democrats members to hold ministerial posts. The party now stands at 2.3% in the poll, a 1 percentage point increase from June. Despite this rise, L has consistently polled around 2% throughout the year, remaining close to the 4% threshold for parliamentary representation.

The poll also indicates that the governing parties are succeeding in mobilizing their supporters, a trend that had previously favored the opposition. Källebring suggests that for the right-wing bloc to secure victory, they must not only re-engage their base but also attract voters who have shifted to opposition parties. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats continue a downward trend, with their support level matching their result from the last election, and their decline has primarily benefited the Left Party and the Green Party.